Stephan Matthiesen

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Model forecast evaluation - Poster at EGU 2013

A poster summarising the ongoing work on characterising the model errors of plume forcasts during the BORTAS project. The poster was presented on 10 April 2013 at the General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union in our session on "Impacts of boreal wildfires on tropospheric Ozone" (for more details on the session, see also the outline of our sessions in English or German).

Executive Summary

We developed a novel forecast quality measure designed to reflect the 3-dimensional structure of biomass burning plumes. It calculates the 3-dimensional displacement that is needed to transform the forecast field into the observed field.

This forms the basis for a quantitative Local Forecast Quality Measure (LFQM). It has separate components for the amplitude error, the horizontal and the vertical displacement errors.

The method is used it to evaluate the quality of the plume forecasts that were produced during the BORTAS project.

Poster at EGU 2013

(PDF version, 3.5Mb)

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